Colin Brinsden – The Courier-Mail

Economists say the latest housing data is likely to prompt the RBA to lift its official cash rate / File

• Housing data points to rate rise 
• “Biggest monthly price hike in five years”
• Experts predict rate rise

RISING house prices and improving credit demand could sway the Reserve Bank of Australia to resume lifting its official cash rate at its meeting next Tuesday.

New data released today showed house prices posted their biggest monthly increase in at least five years in January, while consumers appeared to be regaining confidence in taking on credit despite last year’s interest rate rises, The Courier-Mail reports.

The reports came on top of this week’s stronger-than-expected construction and capital expenditure data, upbeat business investment plans for the next 18 months and recent robust labour force data.

Still, pricing on financial markets suggests the rate decision will be a line-ball call as to whether the central bank lifts the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 per cent at its meeting.

“On balance we expect the Reserve Bank to lift rates next week, but we don’t hold the view with supreme confidence,” Commonwealth Securities (CommSec) chief economist Craig James said.

Likewise, JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters viewed the decision as “something of a coin toss”.

“Our forecast is that the RBA will leave policy steady on Tuesday although, like that of the market, our level of conviction is low,” Mr Walters said.

“The case for a further rate rise is convincing, but it was even stronger back in February when the RBA bucked unanimous expectations for a fourth straight hike.”

Still, whether or not the there is a rate rise next week, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has made it clear that there will be further increases this year given that lending rates are still 50 to 100 basis points below their decade average.

Despite the three rate rises in as many months late last year, there was a modest improvement in credit demand in January, RBA data showed.

Total credit rose by 0.4 per cent in the month, double economists’ expectations and the fastest pace of monthly growth in a year.

Demand for housing loans lead the way, rising 0.7 per cent and matching December’s growth despite the end of the government’s increased first home owners grant at the end of last year.

Other personal loans rose by 0.5 per cent, lifting the annual rate to 0.2 per cent, the first positive yearly rate since September 2008.

But business credit growth fell a twelfth consecutive month.

Also released was the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Australian Home Value Index – Australia’s largest property database – which showed home prices rose by 1.8 per cent in January, the biggest increase in the five-year history of the series.

Home prices were up 11.8 per cent on a year ago, the fastest rate in 22 months, although CommSec’s Mr James pointed out that prices are coming off a low base.

He said the strong gains represent “great news” for homeowners, serving to boost wealth levels and confidence.

“While budding home buyers would prefer prices were a little lower, its clear that they wouldn’t be keen to get in the property market if prices were going backwards.”

PETER MARTIN

The Reserve Bank has produced the first public estimate of the number of times it expects to raise interest rates in the coming months.

Its governor, Glenn Stevens, told the Parliament’s economics committee yesterday he expects to do it between two and four more times.

Declaring the financial crisis over, and telling the committee it had only ever been a global crisis for six to eight weeks, Mr Stevens said the cash rate had to move away from its ”emergency settings” and increase by 0.5 to 1 percentage points so that consumer and business rates would return to their long-term average, ”which I think is the appropriate place to be”.

Another two to four rises of 0.25 points would add a further $95 to $190 to the monthly cost of servicing a $300,000 mortgage, but would, importantly, leave repayments several hundred dollars below where they were before the crisis began.

The future of rates beyond that would depend on the bank’s assessment of wage and inflationary pressures and the institutions with which borrowers had their accounts.

”We have really had 3½ rate moves so far, or if you are a customer of Westpac, four,” the governor told the committee.

Mr Stevens was relaxed about government debt, saying it was so low that on one reading of proposed new international banking standards Australia did not have enough government debt to sell the banks the safe securities they would need.

Asked to respond to a claim by the Coalition frontbencher Barnaby Joyce that Australia was at risk of defaulting on government debt, he said there were ”few things less likely than Australia defaulting”.

Reminded that Senator Joyce was the shadow finance minister, he said he had ”yet to meet a finance minister who has ever mused any possibility about debt default of his own country”.